Since 2016, prices in the sheet and logistics industry have risen by 15% to 20%, which has raised concerns about the cost pressures of home furnishing companies. Recently, the reporter interviewed veterans in the industry. The main conclusions are as follows:
The panel boards industry is optimistic about particleboard, and the rapid development of customized furniture has driven the growth in demand for particleboard. Further replacement of MDF is a future trend. In the panels furniture industry, plywood production accounts for the largest proportion (about 60%) and is the most fragmented, with a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises and family workshops. Currently, brand-name home furnishing companies use MDF and particleboard more. The medium-density panel board of the same grade has a higher comprehensive cost, and the price is about RMB100 /m3 higher than the particleboard.
From the development trend, due to the better grip and lighter weight of the particle board, since 2014, China's large number of medium density fiberboard has been gradually replaced by particleboard. At present, the utilization rate of domestic particleboard is basically saturated, which is significantly higher than MDF 50%~75. In addition, domestic particleboard and MDF use is about 50%: 50%, which is also significantly lower than 90% of European particleboard. It is expected that with the continuous development of customized home enterprises, particleboard will become MDF. The replacement trend will be further accelerated.
The platemaking industry has a low concentration. Due to the impact of new capacity in 2017~2018, particle board prices continue to rise or be limited. It is understood that the expected growth in particle board prices may be limited for three reasons:
1. In 2017, the domestic particleboard industry has an annual production capacity of about 20 million tons. The mainstream enterprises have added capacity plans. It is expected that the new capacity will reach 15% in 2017~2018.
2. The industry concentration is significantly reduced, and the domestic CR1 does not exceed 3%. In recent years, due to the strictness of environmental protection policies, the market share has slightly decreased.
3. From the historical price range, the increase is basically between 1000 and 1200 yuan / m3. Since 2013, the demand for custom households and the increase in freight rates have pushed prices up to around 1,300 yuan / cubic meter. The price of particleboard is expected to remain unchanged in 2017. After the gradual release of new capacity in 2018, a small increase did not rule out the possibility of a decline.
Customized wood furniture companies have raised prices and have long been optimistic about design-driven home businesses. It is understood that at the beginning of this year, mainstream custom companies have raised their ex-factory prices, generally rising by 5% to 20%. In order to absorb the cost pressure, it is expected that the terminal price will increase accordingly. Currently, the demand for personalized homes is still growing at a high rate. Domestic brand home furnishing companies have the strength to absorb cost pressure through internal and external adjustments. The long-term development of design-driven home enterprises is relatively fast, and the penetration rate of the customized industry is expected to further increase.
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